Decimalized Pricing

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly called a ''Loonie'' and an American dollar bill are seen in this staged photo in Toronto, March 17, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/Mark Blinch
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK | Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:53pm BST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors' love affair with the "other" currencies may be just beginning.
The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and Swedish crown are gaining in popularity as investors increasingly look for alternatives amid troubling outlooks for the United States, euro zone and Japan.
Global reserve managers are leading the trend. In the first quarter, central banks who report their reserves added a record $24.5 billion (£15.9 billion) of "other" currencies to their portfolios, Nomura data show.
The share of reserves in "other" currencies stood at 3.7 percent in the first quarter, up from 1.5 percent at the beginning of this decade. It's generally believed this category includes currencies of Canada, Australia, Norway, Sweden and New Zealand.
Jens Nordvig, head of G10 foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura in New York, said the growing inflows into what he called the "new safe havens" are set to continue as central banks rethink their allocations, a development that could boost these currencies in the years ahead.
"It's going to be a massive amount of money that potentially comes in, and there could be a very big impact on these currencies even if it's a relatively moderate amount of central bank portfolios," he said.
Such demand may have already helped cushion the impact on some of these currencies from the recent global turbulence.
The Canadian dollar, for example, has shown resilience in recent months despite a rout in commodity prices and stocks worldwide on economic worries.
Since mid-April, the MSCI world equity index has fallen 10 percent, while oil prices have lost 8 percent. During the same period, the loonie lost only 2.6 percent versus the U.S. dollar, going as low as C$1.0851. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008, the loonie fell as low as C$1.3017, according to Reuters data.
"The Canadian dollar is a currency you want to own," said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at money management firm Gluskin Sheff in Toronto. "Canada has basically been re-rated coming out of the credit crisis as a bastion of stability in an increasingly unstable world."
As a percentage of GDP, Canada's general government net debt is estimated at 32 percent for 2010, the lowest among the Group of Seven economies.
In contrast, Japan has the highest net debt at 122 percent and the United States is at 66 percent, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.
A LIMIT TO THIS 'LOVE AFFAIR'
Currencies of smaller G10 economies tend to have better liquidity and track records of inflation than emerging market currencies, making them good candidates as safe havens.
Their healthier fiscal outlook also makes them appealing as investors increasingly discriminate between currencies with strong sovereign balance sheets and weaker ones.
To be sure, there's a limit on how much reserve managers can invest in the "other" currencies because of the smaller size of these countries' domestic bond markets.
The size of Canada's and Australia's domestic government debt markets are $905.5 billion and $228 billion, respectively. In comparison, the U.S. domestic government debt market totalled $9.5 trillion, the second largest after Japan's local market with $9.7 trillion, Bank for International Settlements data show.
Emma Lawson, currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, said 1 percent of all global reserves would account for 74 percent of the local Australian sovereign debt market and "there isn't the scope for any more."
The Canadian market is "only slightly larger," she said, with 1 percent of global reserves taking up to 30 percent of the local market, and if it increased to 3 percent, this would account for 81 percent and would be "arguably too high."
"For long-term holders like central banks, these commodities currencies provide good diversification and to some extent, one could call it gaining safe-haven status," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "But given their liquidity is far, far less than the majors, they can never serve as full-fledged safe-haven currencies."
Strauss also said while the Canadian and Australian dollars provide a relatively safe store of value over the long term, they "do remain cyclical currencies as well, given their commodity status," which means they tend to fluctuate more than the major currencies.
Still, debate over the dollar's role in the global economy continues.
Talk of more stimulus money and the possibility of a double-dip recession could lead to escalating worries about the swelling U.S. deficits.
Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management in London, said investors "should never equate the dollar with risk-free." Booth added that the argument that the U.S. Treasury market is the most liquid in the world may not hold true if a few central banks started selling.
The following is a guest post by Dana Radcliffe, a senior lecturer of business ethics at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. The opinions expressed are his own.
The day after the Securities and Exchange Commission announced its $550 million settlement with Goldman Sachs, three noted business journalists appeared on a popular current affairs TV show. They concurred that the deal was a win for Goldman since the dollar amount was surprisingly low — equal to what the firm earns in just a few weeks. They felt the SEC’s case was weak and that, legally, Goldman had done nothing wrong and would have prevailed in court.
They also agreed that people were understandably appalled by some of the firm’s conduct in the subprime mortgage crisis in light of the flood of emails and other internal company documents released by Congress and Goldman. Grasping for a way to express what was repellent about such actions, one of the writers described them as “icky.” Another airily noted that they might be seen as wrong “in some ethical, moral, or philosophical sense.”
What is remarkable is while all three pundits shared the common view that Goldman had behaved offensively, they would not say that Goldman’s behavior was “unethical” or “morally wrong.”
This reminded me of the most notorious article ever published in the Harvard Business Review — a 1968 piece by Albert Carr, a former advisor to President Truman. In it, Carr argued that business is akin to poker, where bluffing is often legal and expected. While allowing that deception in one’s personal life violates “private morality,” Carr contended that business and poker are strategic competitions whose rules permit participants to profit from misrepresentations. Indeed, he wrote, being a skilled practitioner in either endeavor requires occasional bluffing.
Carr has been rightly faulted for ignoring crucial differences between poker and most commercial interactions, where asymmetries of power and information typically give executives a distinct advantage over customers, employees, and other stakeholders. However, what about business activities that do resemble those of players in a poker game in which sophisticated investors bet against each other? Could it be that when a type of business activity is truly analogous to poker some artful moves that don’t break any laws qualify as bluffs?
The fact is, in competitive transactions where all parties have access to the same information, it’s not wholly implausible to see Carr’s argument apply to business dealings that closely approximate poker games. The Goldman Sachs deal that sparked so much public anger and prompted the SEC lawsuit fits this description.
However, Goldman took advantage of the buyers by withholding information — about how the securities had been designed — that might have deterred the buyers from taking the deals, in which they lost hundreds of millions of dollars. But, since the buyers were perfectly capable of evaluating the riskiness of the securities for themselves, it’s far from clear that Goldman owed them any further information. They were “icky” transactions, but not illegal or even unethical.
Much of the opprobrium heaped on Goldman Sachs for these transactions is misplaced. But there is something deeply wrong with an industry that has been increasingly devoted to concocting “investments” that are nothing more than high-risk gambles with the savings of millions of people.
FTSE higher, driven by strong banks, oils, miners
(Reuters) - Strong banks led Britain's top share index higher by midday Thursday, on upbeat investor sentiment ahead of European stress test results, while firmer commodity prices buoyed miners and energy stocks.
By 1104 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 53.56 points, or 1.0 percent, at 5,268.20, having closed up 1.5 percent in the previous session.
Banks provided the main strength for the blue chip index, with Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays the best off, adding 2.8 percent and 2.4 percent respectively.
"Banks are doing okay. I think that's an expression of the fact that the UK banks and indeed many banks are expected to pass the stress tests quite easily tomorrow," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank.
The European Union examination of banks' financial strength is due Friday and is expected to show generally positive results for Greece, Italy and Ireland and a few failures in Portugal and Spain.
"It is slightly odd that markets have got such positive momentum behind them ahead of a big event, but I think it's indicative of the fact that markets think these stress tests aren't going to change the way they view the world," Dixon said.
Buyers came in for the miners as metals prices rallied, with copper hitting its highest in nearly two months, lifted by a weaker dollar.
Kazakhmys and Anglo American, were the best performers in the sector, both rising 2.3 percent.
Energy stocks also notched up good gains, with BG Group and Royal Dutch Shell adding 0.7 percent and 1.2 percent respectively, while BP climbed 1 percent on building optimism about ending the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
There was some positive economic data, as British retail sales volumes received a World Cup boost in June after strong sales of electrical goods drove a faster-than-expected 0.7 percent monthly rise, official data showed.
But investors' underlying mood was still cautious following a downbeat assessment of the U.S. recovery by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday.
The Fed stands ready to ease monetary policy further if the budding U.S. economic recovery withers, Bernanke said, describing the outlook as "unusually uncertain."
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street following the previous session's steep losses after Bernanke's comments, as investors awaited weekly jobless claims, due at 1230 GMT, as well as the Conference Board leading indicators and existing home sales, both due at 1400 GMT.
Investors were also looking ahead to the next batch of U.S. earnings, with Microsoft and Amazon.com among those reporting on Thursday.
CAPITA CLIMBS
Capita was the top FTSE 100 riser, up 5.4 percent, after the outsourcing group posted a 15 percent rise in first half profit and said it was seeing buoyant demand across the private and public sectors, strengthening its bidding pipeline.
In reaction to the results, Evolution Securities upped its rating for Capita to "buy" from "add."
Software firm Autonomy was the top FTSE 100 faller, down 12.5 percent after second-quarter earnings.
"We estimate that after adjusting for one-offs, Autonomy failed to grow its core business in Q2 2010," KBC Peel Hunt said in a note, maintaining its "sell" rating.
And Imperial Tobacco shed 2.3 percent after it said cigarette volumes fell 4.3 percent in the nine months to June.
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